Are Alonso’s Podium Chances Overrated in Saudi Grand Prix?
Author:
Roy Brindley
The 2023 Formula 1 campaign is gathering pace. Ten days after the season opener in Bahrain, the teams arrived at Jeddah Corniche Circuit in Saudi Arabia for this weekend’s race. It will be the third time the West Asian country has hosted the premier class of motorsport. Max Verstappen won this contest a year ago. The 2021 race took place in December and was claimed by Lewis Hamilton.
Hot stuff: Jeddah’s Corniche Circuit is an exceptionally fast and flowing track. ?GettyImages
The 6.174-kilometer circuit has been modified in some places for 2023. So-called ‘rumble lines’ have been installed at five of the corners to slow down cars straying outside of the track limits. Additionally, the steel curbs in some corners have been replaced by beveled curbs. Several high fences have also been moved to improve driver visibility.
Nothing detracts from Jeddah Corniche Circuit being the fastest-ever street circuit despite featuring 27 corners. Suffice it to say most corners here are fast and sweeping. It means an average lap speed of 250 kilometers per hour is predicted on Sunday. This rapid pace puts the venue on par with the legendary Spa-Francorchamps.
A Hot and Grueling Race
The 2023 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix will once again be contested over 50 laps and a race distance of 308.45 kilometers. Allied to hot conditions – despite being a night race, temperatures could be in the high 20s – this grueling contest could see a significant number of contenders flounder.
Last season only 13 cars went the full race distance. In 2021, there were five race retirements. Online betting sites are well aware of the stats. They offer just 5/6 that Sunday’s race will see less than 15.5 classified race finishers.
Better value may lay with an individual driver faltering. At 7/2, Charles Leclerc’s odds of failing to go 90 percent of the Saudi race distance – what is required to be declared a ‘classified finisher’ – appear a sound proposition.
The Monegasque driver is reportedly disgruntled about the mechanical failure that ended his Bahrain Grand Prix. In a similar mindset, the 25-year-old repeatedly made mistakes during the 2022 season. Be it driver error, accident, or mechanical failure, there is ample reason to predict a second DNF could irk Leclerc further this weekend.
Will Fernando Get the Max Again?
Max Verstappen’s Red Bull has been hyper-reliable during the past 11 months. It is 21 races since the World Champion suffered a race-ending accident or mechanical failure. And, with his cakewalk success in Bahrain a fortnight ago, the Dutchman is predicted to win his eleventh race in 13 starts.
Once again, the bookmakers are taking no chances. Verstappen is an 8/15 shot to score on Sunday and 6/5 to claim pole position 24 hours beforehand. Similarly, online sportsbooks strongly rate Fernando Alonso’s chances of making a second consecutive appearance on the podium.
“I could have driven for another hour, the car was mega to drive” ??
Fernando Alonso was loving it out there ?? pic.twitter.com/hKGQyfFXj7
— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) March 5, 2023
This 5/6 proposition does not appeal. Essentially the Spaniard inherited third position in Bahrain due to Leclerc’s breakdown. This could happen again, but will this high-speed circuit suit Alonso’s Aston Martin as much as Bahrain did? It is doubtful.
Analyzing sector times from the season’s opening race suggests his car’s strong point is braking and mechanical grip in slow corners. Slow corners are not abundant at the Corniche Circuit, but the Aston Martin should be good in Australia – the next race on the calendar in April – and could be an animal at Monaco at the end of May.
