Who Has the Credentials to Win the 2023 Epsom Derby?
Author:
Roy Brindley
When The Foxes won Thursday’s Dante Stakes at York, the final piece of the Betfred Derby jigsaw was placed into the box. Now, the task is to piece together the puzzle for the June 3rd classic contest staged at Epsom Downs.
In the most open-looking Derby in years, the bookmakers are unable to truly separate the winners of the established trials. Marginally heading the betting market is the Godolphin-owned Military Order, but six horses are trading at 12/1 or less.
The Foxes (right) narrowly holds off White Birch in the most-important Derby trial, the Dante Stakes. ?GettyImages
So, who are the chief contenders in the 244th Derby, and what are their credentials? Here is our guide to Britain’s richest horse race, the Blue Riband of the turf, and the most prestigious of the five Classics.
Military Order 4/1
The winner of an ordinary race on his second and final start as a two-year-old, this son of Frankel comfortably beat four rivals in a novice stake at Newbury on his seasonal debut in April. Charlie Appleby’s horse then took a big step forward when grinding out a determined success in the Lingfield Derby trial on the all-weather surface in mid-May.
Military Order’s dam, Anna Salai, has already produced a Derby winner – Adayar, in 2021. Only one Lingfield Derby Trial winner has gone on to win the Epsom Derby since 1998 (Anthony Van Dyck in 2019), but Adayar finished second in this race before his Derby success.
Augustine Rodin 9/2
This superstar juvenile landed Doncaster’s Futurity on his final start as a two-year-old and started as the 13/8 favorite in the 2000 Guineas on his seasonal debut. However, this daughter of 2017 Oaks runner-up, Rhododendron, was beaten over 20 lengths in the one-mile Newmarket classic.
The Aidan O’Brien-trained Augustine Rodin is impossible to fancy judged on that form. But the fact that the Irish maestro is running this horse in the Derby indicates he has faith in his charge, and Reference Point (1986), High Chaparral (2001), Motivator (2004), Authorized (2006) and Camelot (2011) all completed the Futurity/Derby double.
Arrest 6/1
Another Frankel colt, Arrest improved throughout his four-race two-year-old career and ended 2022 by finishing second in a French Group-1. But his lofty place in the Derby betting partly comes courtesy of a six-length success in Chester’s Derby trial, the Chester Vase.
Frankie’s final Derby ride?
Arrest powers clear to win the Chester Vase in testing conditions.
The son of Frankel is now favourite in places for the Epsom Classic.
— Champions Series (@ChampionsSeries) May 10, 2023
It is impossible to know what this Gosden-trained horse achieved in this contest. There were only four rivals – all with moderate form – and the race was staged on soft ground. The Chester Vase did produce 2013 Derby winner, Ruler Of The World, and 2017 winner Wings Of Eagles (who finished second in Chester). This horse will be Frankie Dettori’s final ride in the Derby. An avalanche of public money is therefore sure to arrive for his mount, and Arrest is probably already underpriced.
The Foxes 10/1
A Group-2 winner at two, The Foxes won a muddling rendition of York’s Dante Stakes where Passenger, was denied a clear run and appeared an unlucky loser. The Dante is regarded as the best form-pointer to the Derby. It has produced 11 winners of the Epsom classic. These include the 2022 winner, Desert Crown and the 2015 victor, Golden Horn.
Only one horse has been beaten in the Dante and won the Derby, and that was Workforce in 2010. Pundits have been quick to point out that champion was previously once raced and was trained by Sir Michael Stout. Passenger has an identical profile, and so best horse racing betting sites are keeping him on their side by quoting the colt at 8/1 to score at Epsom.
Sprewell 12/1
Raced only four times – twice as a juvenile and only ever encountering soft or heavy going – Sprewell got off the mark in a small race at Naas in March. He then stepped up dramatically to win the Leopardstown Derby trial ahead of five rivals trained by the O’Brien family.
High Chaparral was the last horse to win the Leopardstown contest en route to Derby success. Trained by Jessica Harrington, who is battling cancer, Sprewell would be a very popular winner.
White Birch 14/1
From the small Irish yard of John Joseph Murphy, White Birch pulled off a shock when winning the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown. Galileo (2001) and Harzand (2016) both won this race prior to Epsom success.
Held up in last and delivered with a strong finish, White Birch finished a neck second in the Dante (behind The Foxes). Therefore, on face value, his Derby odds appear generous, and he would undoubtedly be shorter in the betting if hailing from a more fashionable yard.
Victoria Road 25/1
Only one horse has won the Derby on its seasonal debut during the past 100 years. Another interesting stat to consider is, 20 of the last 21 Derby winners had run within the past five weeks. Under normal circumstances, the stats would make Victoria Road unbackable. But, in a Derby where no horse stands out on form, this Aidan O’Brien-trained contender cannot be dismissed.
Yet to set foot on a racecourse in 2023, Victoria Road raced eight times at two. Unsuccessful in his first four outings, he finished 2022 on a four-timer culminating in success in the Grade-1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in America.
